FOX in the Box

Masih inget kemaren malam saya twit soal riset 35 halaman yang bisa kasih cuan? :-). 

Berikut saya Copy Pastekan beberapa cuplikannya, sekedar untuk pembelajaran saja. Sahamnya sendiri sudah mulai jalan, saya TIDAK rekomendasikan untuk hajar kanan, jika memang tertarik dengan sahamnya silahkan cek lagi ke chart untuk menentukan titik entry nya.

Sekedar info, gaya main saham ini, seringkali muncul BIG seller dengan model tektok 2-3 point, so jangan main hajar kanan yaa, karena jika hal tersebut dilakukan maka anda kemungkinan bisa nyangkut atau setidaknya beli diharga yang lebih mahal dimana sebenarnya bisa dapat harga lebih murah. Tapi jika siap dengan resikonya ya silahkan saja hajar kanan. :-)

Sebenarnya hal ini sudah pernah saya twit kan jauh hari sebelum riset ini dipublish, tiga kata kunci waktu itu, Foxconn, cikande dan emiten property di bursa..hehe..

Berikut cuplikannya

Fox in the box

We initiate coverage on Modernland Realty (MDLN) with a Buy rating and Rp675/share (44% upside) target price, based on 50% discount to RNAV of Rp1,352/share. The stock currently trades on 65% discount to RNAV and FY13 PER of 7.8x. MDLN develops four residential projects in greater Jakarta, but its industrial estate project could take center stage with the potential entry of Taiwan based Foxconn Technology. According to media reports, Foxconn has acquired a 5,000sqm factory building in ModernCikande industrial estate, while looking to expand its presence to 500 hectares land area over 4-5 years. The company has increase its industrial land list price from Rp700 thousand per sqm at the beginning of the year, to around Rp1 million currently while holding back the sales effort. Five reasons why ModernCikande could be suitable for Foxconn’s smart city:
1) Compared to the other industrial estates, ModernCikande is closest to Cengkareng International Airport; 2) Cheaper land price than the more developed estates in Karawang and Cikarang, at almost half the price; 3) Potentially better labor availability for Foxconn as the first anchor employer in the area;
4) Land availability of up to 1,000ha to fulfill future needs; and
5) Potential road access improvement with the expected completion of Cikande toll-gate next year, shortening the toll-road access from 17km to 1.5km.

Potential value unlocking by selling some or all of its residential land in Serpong.
On its residential division, MDLN is sitting on 228 hectares land in Serpong, 75 hectares of which is located in ASRI’s 300ha license area. As MDLN will need sizeable fresh capital to clear the required industrial land in ModernCikande, the company may decide to monetize the idle land bank. We understand that talks between MDLN and ASRI are on-going, as ASRI has opportunistically raised US$150mn in recent bond and equity issues. Given the steep discount to RNAV, a monetization of idle land bank to fund a faster industrial land turn-over should unlock value.

Big profit upside in year 2014 from Cakung warehousing project.
MDLN has acquired around 100ha land in Cakung, East Jakarta, to develop a warehouse. Cakung is located near Tanjung Priok port, which is undergoing major expansion. They are currently working on the license, once obtained the company expects to sell around 8 hectares per year. The potential profit contribution could be as high as Rp500bn per year. We conservatively assume half year contribution in 2014

Versi lengkapnya bisa di download di sini --> Fox in the Box

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