Thursday, February 9, 2012

Sekedar share riset BWPT dari ciptadana, harga sudah naik cukup banyak, hati hati biasanya good news is a bad news, ada yang mau jualan..
saya sertakan chart BWPT sebagai bahan pertimbangan..
Disclaimer ON..
*tidak punya posisi di BWPT

PT BW PLANTATIONS - TP 1,630/sh
Sparkling Little Star
We reinitiate our coverage on PT BW Plantations Tbk (BWPT) with a buy recommendation and a 12-month target price of Rp1,630 based on DCF calculation. We like BWPT for its strong production growth, outstanding yield and spectacular margins among all other listed plantation companies.
The Rising Star. CPO has been the “rising star” commodities, offering the highest consumption and production growth of any edible oil in the world. The success factor behind it is superior yield. Palm oil offers the highest oil-per-hectare-yield of any other edible oil in the world which makes palm oil a very efficient raw-material for processing food.
Developing countries as center of demand. Developing countries like India, China and Indonesia will be the center of edible oil demand. Population and rising income per capita is the key driver of the edible oil demand in developing countries.
Price catalyst. We expect CPO prices to remain firmed above US$ 1,050/ton in the following years and maintain a “Neutral” rating for plantation sector. Our assumption are based on following factors: 1) Tight stock usage ratio as an indication of robust demand, 2) Widening discount to soybean-oil, and 3) Normalize production.
Remarkable production growth. BWPT has been the champion in Indonesia’s plantation sector with its outstanding production growth among any listed plantation companies. The key factors behind the robust production growth is aggressive new planting and improvement in FFB yield as management implied best estates practices
Favorable estate structure. Going forward we expect BWPT continue to record strong production growth. Our expectation is derived from several factors such as 1.) Inverse estate structure 2.) Higher portion of land bank.
Juvenile player which offers the highest yield. BWPT by far, is the youngest plantation company in the industry with an average age of 8.5 years as of December 2011. Despite being the youngest plantation company, BWPT offers the highest yield among its peers. The success factor behind the outstanding yield, which according to us is driven by several factors such as 1.) Least plasma estates portion, 2.) Utilization of management’s best practice. 
Lucrative acquisition. BWPT is on the edge of finalizing a deal to acquire 11,000 ha estate. Using Accretion/Dilution Analysis, we reckon that the acquisition is accretive for BWPT as the proposed acquisition deal creates shareholder value.
Valuation. We initiate coverage on BW Plantations (BWPT) with a BUY recommendation and a target price of IDR 1,630/shares based on Discounted Cash Flow Method (DCF).
Our target price suggest a 12.4% upside potential from the current price of IDR 1,450/ shares.
sumber: riset ciptadana sekuritas 8 feb 2012

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