Trading Bareng Kokolato: TBIG riset mandiri sekuritas

Friday, February 10, 2012

TBIG riset mandiri sekuritas

Saya kutipkan riset TBIG dari mandiri sekuritas..

by chart sudah breakout..candle rawan profit taking..

gutlak

Win-win deal with Indosat, strong 4Q11

On its press release yesterday, Tower Bersama (TBIG) announced: (1) That as of end-2011, it has 4,868 sites and 7,002 tenancies, or an increase of 57% and 48% from 1 January 2011 figures of 3,104 sites and 4,729 tenancies. In Q4 2011 alone, it added 360 sites and 593 tenancies organically. (2) It has finalized the deal to purchase 2,500 tower assets and lease certain site space to Indosat, for upfront consideration of US$406mn and a maximum potential earn-out amount of US$113mn. The upfront consideration will comprise of cash and newly issued TBIG shares. The share consideration will be based on trailing market prices over a period prior to closing, and will represent approximately 5% of TBIG’s enlarged share capital. Under the terms of the agreement, Indosat will lease all 2,500 towers, as an anchor tenant, from TBIG for a minimum period of 10 years. Taken on a proforma basis, this latest acquisition of 2,500 tower assets (which includes Indosat and third party tenancies) takes TBIG to 7,368 sites and more than 10,000 tenancies, immediately resulting in higher revenue and EBITDA. The completion of the transaction is subject to various approvals including those of TBIG’s shareholders and Indosat’s bondholders and lenders. The transaction is expected to complete during Q2 2012.

The year-end 2011 operating data shows that 4Q11 was a big quarter for TBIG. We had forecasted a year-end tenancy of 6,507, versus actual achievement of 7,002. All of the 593 new tenancies in 4Q11 was organic, implying a monthly rate of addition of around 200 tenants. In the first nine months, the organic addition was running at only around 112 per month. For the whole of year 2012, we are currently forecasting a monthly organic addition of 180, which is looking very conservative now considering the 4Q11 actual rate and the 2,500 new site locations from Indosat

Even better, a big percentage (60%) of the 593 new tenancies in 4Q11 was collocation tenants who do not require new tower build-out. The number of sites have only increased by 360 in 4Q11, which is in-line with our forecast (year-end 2011 sites at 4,868 versus MS forecast of 4,907.