Berikut kutipan dari riset makroekonomi oleh Mandiri Sekuritas, siapa tahu bermanfaat. Perhatikan bahwa faktor konsumsi domestik masih akan tumbuh di 2012, sehingga saham saham yang sebagian besar pasarnya di Indonesia kemungkinan akan mengalami pertumbuhan yang lumayan di 2012.
The economy grew the fastest in 15 years despite global turmoil
Highlights
Highlights
Indonesia GDP grew 6.5% yoy in 4Q11, slightly higher than our and consensus estimate of 6.47% and 6.45%, respectively. As we expected, the engine of growth came from domestic demand while net exports declined. Interestingly, investment growth was higher than expected, reaching 11.5% yoy in 4Q11 which is the highest since 3Q08. Meanwhile, private consumption remained solid, growing 4.9% yoy in the corresponding period. On sector basis, non-tradable sector continued to dominate growth, yet the trend was relatively flat while manufacturing sector continued to increase its contribution.
Full-year growth in 2011 reached 6.5%, the highest since 1996. Based on the share of region, Java still dominated Indonesia’s economic growth by 57.6% of total, followed by Sumatera and Kalimantan at 23.5% and 9.6%, respectively. On the other hand, per-capita GDP continued to improve to US$3,543 in 2011, 13.8% higher than 2010 supported by falling unemployment rate to 6.6% in 2011 (the lowest since 2000).
Going forward, we expect, however, domestic economy to slow slightly to 6.2% from 6.5% in 2011 due to global economic slowdown. Despite this slight decrease yet we perceive the number as relatively strong, notably compared to other countries’ growth. Furthermore, the impact of the global economic slowdown, we believe, will be limited as it could be compensated by the domestic demand, lower cost of funds after the recent ratings upgrades to investment-grade levels that will ramp up investment spending, and the prospect of the de-bottlenecking in infrastructure given the new land acquisition law.
Sumber: Riset Mandiri Sekuritas 7 Februari 2012
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